The End of Cheap Nickel: Reserves are running out and the cost of technology could skyrocket.

The End of Cheap Nickel: Reserves are running out and the cost of technology could skyrocket.

Nickel is a metal of great global importance due to its unique properties of corrosion resistance, durability, and ability to withstand extreme temperatures. Its use is essential in multiple industries, from automotive to energy and aerospace.

Main Industrial Uses of Nickel

1. Stainless Steel Production: This is by far the most important use of nickel, accounting for more than two-thirds of global demand. Nickel is alloyed with iron to produce stainless steels, which are essential in the manufacture of kitchenware, medical equipment, storage tanks, and architectural structures, as they provide corrosion resistance and rigidity.
2. Batteries: Nickel is a key component in lithium-ion and nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries. Its high energy density makes it vital for the manufacture of high-performance batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs) , electronic devices, and large-scale energy storage systems.
3. Alloys and Superalloys: Nickel is blended with other metals to create alloys with superior properties. Nickel superalloys are extremely resistant to heat and corrosion, making them indispensable in the aerospace industry for the manufacture of aircraft engines and gas turbines. They are also used in the chemical industry and in power generation.
4. Electroplating: Nickel is used as a protective and decorative coating on other metals. This thin, durable layer improves the corrosion and wear resistance of parts and is used in a wide range of products, from automotive components to household goods.

In short, nickel is an irreplaceable material for the energy transition and technological development, establishing itself as one of the most important metals of the 21st century.

World Nickel Reserves and Production

According to the USGS, proven and economically exploitable nickel reserves worldwide exceed 100 million metric tons . Indonesia is by far the country with the largest reserves. Globally identified resources, which are not necessarily economically viable reserves, are estimated at 300 million tons .

The following table presents the known nickel reserves and production of the main countries, with estimated data for 2023 and 2024.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024 and 2025

 

Estimated Reserve Depletion

The estimate of when nickel reserves will be depleted is a very simplistic projection based on dividing proven reserves by current annual production. This figure does not take into account key variables such as increased demand, the discovery of new reserves, or the advancement of recycling technologies. However, it serves as an illustrative reference to the potential of each country’s current reserves.

 

It’s important to note that production in countries like Russia, the Philippines, and Canada is higher relative to their known reserves, suggesting faster depletion if new deposits aren’t discovered. In contrast, countries with large reserves like Brazil and Australia have a much longer development horizon.

Final reserve depletion scenario.

In the hypothetical scenario that Australia and Brazil became the world’s sole suppliers of nickel, combined reserves would be depleted in approximately 10 years under current demand.

Projection Calculation

To arrive at this figure, the proven reserves of both countries are added together and divided by global annual nickel production.

• Total combined reserves:
  • Australia: 20,000,000 metric tons
  • Brazil: 16,000,000 metric tons
  • Total = 36,000,000 metric tons
• Global annual production:
  • Currently, world nickel production is around 3,500,000 metric tons per year.

If Australia and Brazil were to assume all of that annual production, the depletion projection would be:

36,000,000 tons ÷ 3,500,000 tons/year ≈ 10.28 years.

Considerations and Warnings

It’s crucial to understand that this is an estimated projection, and in reality, the scenario is much more complex. This calculation doesn’t consider:

• Production viability: Australia and Brazil’s ability to increase their production so dramatically from one year to the next is virtually impossible.
• Price impact: Such a severe shortage would drive up nickel prices, making the exploitation of currently unprofitable deposits economically viable.
• Additional factors: Recycling nickel and the discovery of new reserves would also extend the mineral’s useful life.

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